AAA forecasts 31.5 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home during the Labor Day holiday weekend, a 2.4-percent decrease from the 32.3 million people who traveled one year ago.
The Labor Day holiday travel period is defined as Thursday, Sept. 1 to Monday, Sept. 5.
The decrease in expected travelers is being driven by a mixed economic outlook, consumer uncertainty regarding the overall economy, and recent downturns in economic factors that affect discretionary income, which is particularly relevant to the travel and tourism industry.
“AAA is projecting a decrease in the number of Labor Day travelers as some Americans react to recent economic uncertainty and increasing air fares,” said Jennifer Cook, AAA Washington spokesperson. “While automobile travel is only expected to increase by half of a percent, if recent declines in gasoline prices continue through Labor Day, we could see an increase in last-minute holiday weekend travel.”
Automobile travel up slightly, gas prices on the decline
Approximately 27.3 million people (87 percent of holiday travelers) plan to take to the nation’s roadways this Labor Day holiday weekend. This is a slight increase of 0.5 percent from the 27.2 million Labor Day 2010 auto travelers.
The average price of self-serve regular unleaded gasoline in Washington state is $3.77 per gallon, down four cents in the past month, but still 67 cents higher than one year ago.
The national average is $3.57 per gallon, down 13 cents in the past month, but 86 cents higher than one year ago. Due to recent economic news, crude oil prices have been dropping and are now in the mid-$80/barrel range that the country saw at the beginning of the year. If gas prices continue to decline, it’s likely that some people who had originally intended to stay home when we surveyed them six weeks ago, may decide to hit the road.
Number of air travelers expected to decrease
Almost 2.5 million travelers (8 percent of holiday travelers) will fly during the Labor Day holiday weekend, a 1.9-percent decrease from 2010. Rising fuel costs, combined with steady air travel demand, have resulted in rising airfares over the past few months.
According to AAA’s Leisure Travel Index, Labor Day airfares are expected to be 13 percent higher than last year with an average lowest round-trip rate of $202 for the top 40 U.S. air routes. Increasing airfares and fees are factors contributing to the decline in air travel, the first expected decline for a major travel holiday in 2011 as forecast by AAA.
Travel by other modes of transportation expected to decrease sharply
Other modes of travel (trains, watercraft, multi-modal travel) will make up the remaining five percent of total person-trips (1.7 million travelers), down from the 2010 share of eight percent, but well above the four percent seen in 2009.
